← All proof trees

1. 1
   How it was computedconsecutive-year correlations; median absolute change; sd of change by enrollment band

   universe

   Schools present in both years of a pair (source file)

   packet block

   stability

   Uses: Chronic absenteeism as 100 minus the 90%-attendance share

   Evidence: generator — search "// 8 — stability"

2. 2
   What went inInputs

   • sdp_attendance_90_school — read directly from the publisher’s file (Student attendance — % with 90%+ attendance, by school and year). findings
3. 3
   The generated fileThe committed data file

   Generated 2026-09-08 by one script from the inputs above; the page renders only from this file.

   This block’s raw values (JSON)

   {
    "consecutive_r": {
     "2020-21->2021-22": {
      "pearson_r": 0.8758,
      "n_schools": 213
     },
     "2021-22->2022-23": {
      "pearson_r": 0.9173,
      "n_schools": 213
     },
     "2022-23->2023-24": {
      "pearson_r": 0.9296,
      "n_schools": 215
     },
     "2023-24->2024-25": {
      "pearson_r": 0.9464,
      "n_schools": 216
     }
    },
    "long_arc_baseline_to_latest": {
     "pair": "2021-22->2024-25",
     "pearson_r": 0.8836,
     "n_schools": 213
    },
    "latest_pair_change": {
     "pair": "2023-24->2024-25",
     "n_schools": 216,
     "median_change": -0.84,
     "mean_change": -0.3787,
     "median_abs_change": 2.3,
     "pct_improved_gt2pp": 31.9444,
     "pct_improved_gt5pp": 12.963,
     "pct_worsened_gt2pp": 22.6852,
     "pct_worsened_gt5pp": 11.1111,
     "n_moved_gt5": 52,
     "n_moved_gt10": 12
    },
    "volatility_by_size_latest_pair": {
     "<300": {
      "n": 40,
      "sd_change": 7.3232,
      "median_abs_change": 2.745,
      "mean_change": -1.2205
     },
     "300-599": {
      "n": 115,
      "sd_change": 5.4398,
      "median_abs_change": 2.72,
      "mean_change": -0.166
     },
     "600+": {
      "n": 61,
      "sd_change": 3.0865,
      "median_abs_change": 1.51,
      "mean_change": -0.2277
     }
    },
    "scatter_latest_pair": [
     [
      59.65,
      64.26
     ],
     [
      60.3,
      59.3
     ],
     [
      63.17,
      60.45
     ],
     [
      41.75,
      39.79
     ],
     [
      57.17,
      64.6
     ],
     [
      37.89,
      35.01
     ],
     [
      30.08,
      33.49
     ],
     [
      61.53,
      61.52
     ],
     [
      29.7,
      52.88
     ],
     [
      26.95,
      24.66
     ],
     [
      63.04,
      55.99
     ],
     [
      4.08,
      4.29
     ],
     [
      56.93,
      51.88
     ],
     [
      49.85,
      48.45
     ],
     [
      32.35,
      29.45
     ],
     [
      52.77,
      57.14
     ],
     [
      57.93,
      54.37
     ],
     [
      57.94,
      50.44
     ],
     [
      36.61,
      36.08
     ],
     [
      19.5,
      17.91
     ],
     [
      39.17,
      34.47
     ],
     [
      59.36,
      58.54
     ],
     [
      51.17,
      52.07
     ],
     [
      46.84,
      45.84
     ],
     [
      50.12,
      41.78
     ],
     [
      54.41,
      47.46
     ],
     [
      62.18,
      63.17
     ],
     [
      31.65,
      34.81
     ],
     [
      60.13,
      65.36
     ],
     [
      68.34,
      70.14
     ],
     [
      21.46,
      19.51
     ],
     [
      22.8,
      23.9
     ],
     [
      3.83,
      4.65
     ],
     [
      46.88,
      47.79
     ],
     [
      29.57,
      23.24
     ],
     [
      25.91,
      26.77
     ],
     [
      32.37,
      38.55
     ],
     [
      39.61,
      31.57
     ],
     [
      38.83,
      35.95
     ],
     [
      45.14,
      41.46
     ],
     [
      10.37,
      9.77
     ],
     [
      61.27,
      58.55
     ],
     [
      5.85,
      5.51
     ],
     [
      53.73,
      53.07
     ],
     [
      8.89,
      8.01
     ],
     [
      28.86,
      24.48
     ],
     [
      8.44,
      9.93
     ],
     [
      22.26,
      23.12
     ],
     [
      57.09,
      55.96
     ],
     [
      11.44,
      10.95
     ],
     [
      14.87,
      13.03
     ],
     [
      29.13,
      20.91
     ],
     [
      13.71,
      16.21
     ],
     [
      20.1,
      24.32
     ],
     [
      12.68,
      13.58
     ],
     [
      35.9,
      30.41
     ],
     [
      17.4,
      17.9
     ],
     [
      13.52,
      16.57
     ],
     [
      41.65,
      34.12
     ],
     [
      16.9,
      14.58
     ],
     [
      27.37,
      23.15
     ],
     [
      27.51,
      28.73
     ],
     [
      69.03,
      76.5
     ],
     [
      18.63,
      17.58
     ],
     [
      64.76,
      66.16
     ],
     [
      64.55,
      73.05
     ],
     [
      47.49,
      49.72
     ],
     [
      56.07,
      42.44
     ],
     [
      65.87,
      64.49
     ],
     [
      36.71,
      32.84
     ],
     [
      57.3,
      47.24
     ],
     [
      40.06,
      39.53
     ],
     [
      62.93,
      68.68
     ],
     [
      49.86,
      57.41
     ],
     [
      46.09,
      37.33
     ],
     [
      60.08,
      62.5
     ],
     [
      65.04,
      63.51
     ],
     [
      63.58,
      61.36
     ],
     [
      59.49,
      43.97
     ],
     [
      21.4,
      23.48
     ],
     [
      44.21,
      53.73
     ],
     [
      64.44,
      61.41
     ],
     [
      7.28,
      41.08
     ],
     [
      59.16,
      58.77
     ],
     [
      67.18,
      78.1
     ],
     [
      59.44,
      56.84
     ],
     [
      62.79,
      58.02
     ],
     [
      30.18,
      27.39
     ],
     [
      25.12,
      23.23
     ],
     [
      49.42,
      37.34
     ],
     [
      12.82,
      15.82
     ],
     [
      64.99,
      66.07
     ],
     [
      40.83,
      40.55
     ],
     [
      69.67,
      67.78
     ],
     [
      8.62,
      10.46
     ],
     [
      44.35,
      49.44
     ],
     [
      23.48,
      24.79
     ],
     [
      42.91,
      44.35
     ],
     [
      58.18,
      49.6
     ],
     [
      21.67,
      22.05
     ],
     [
      53.61,
      56.73
     ],
     [
      54.34,
      52.63
     ],
     [
      49.79,
      50.82
     ],
     [
      52.38,
      52.81
     ],
     [
      27.9,
      25.21
     ],
     [
      53.46,
      50.81
     ],
     [
      44.5,
      42.3
     ],
     [
      58.04,
      49.24
     ],
     [
      55.52,
      51.85
     ],
     [
      41.31,
      31.18
     ],
     [
      45.78,
      57.88
     ],
     [
      46.81,
      43.77
     ],
     [
      46.8,
      42.06
     ],
     [
      41.69,
      42.53
     ],
     [
      45.53,
      45.33
     ],
     [
      67.42,
      65.49
     ],
     [
      36.7,
      45.36
     ],
     [
      58.63,
      54.71
     ],
     [
      42.46,
      41.24
     ],
     [
      47.63,
      48.8
     ],
     [
      49.81,
      51.36
     ],
     [
      41.24,
      50.91
     ],
     [
      63.43,
      64.56
     ],
     [
      57.14,
      55.51
     ],
     [
      41.91,
      47.9
     ],
     [
      69.58,
      69.81
     ],
     [
      9.78,
      12.35
     ],
     [
      59.53,
      58.21
     ],
     [
      42.62,
      34.05
     ],
     [
      37.28,
      32.06
     ],
     [
      53.18,
      60.5
     ],
     [
      64.33,
      62.33
     ],
     [
      37.6,
      36.63
     ],
     [
      36.21,
      35.8
     ],
     [
      30.77,
      30.85
     ],
     [
      31.67,
      29.82
     ],
     [
      17.09,
      16.14
     ],
     [
      21.92,
      23.55
     ],
     [
      22.96,
      25.19
     ],
     [
      36.68,
      32.82
     ],
     [
      33.33,
      40.38
     ],
     [
      32.82,
      27.2
     ],
     [
      48.73,
      37.1
     ],
     [
      32.78,
      37.5
     ],
     [
      66.25,
      66
     ],
     [
      27.15,
      33.06
     ],
     [
      40.77,
      45.3
     ],
     [
      13.88,
      11.56
     ],
     [
      24.17,
      26.67
     ],
     [
      26.58,
      28.34
     ],
     [
      25.17,
      26.62
     ],
     [
      52.83,
      44.28
     ],
     [
      24.46,
      21.71
     ],
     [
      39.54,
      36.8
     ],
     [
      66.04,
      64.17
     ],
     [
      68.88,
      67.44
     ],
     [
      47.68,
      43.43
     ],
     [
      44.95,
      49.71
     ],
     [
      51.59,
      54.13
     ],
     [
      29.06,
      43.31
     ],
     [
      34.7,
      34.84
     ],
     [
      34.09,
      34.59
     ],
     [
      41.02,
      35.71
     ],
     [
      31.08,
      30.9
     ],
     [
      33.33,
      27.57
     ],
     [
      32.08,
      37.21
     ],
     [
      50.82,
      52.05
     ],
     [
      45.98,
      45.14
     ],
     [
      32.01,
      28.19
     ],
     [
      34.03,
      33.33
     ],
     [
      34.72,
      38.23
     ],
     [
      41.76,
      42.86
     ],
     [
      57.82,
      56.13
     ],
     [
      33.33,
      20.51
     ],
     [
      48.45,
      47.61
    
   … (truncated; full block in the packet file)

   Evidence: packet JSON · generator script

4. 4
   How it was checkedChecked: passed

   • ✓ passedConsecutive-year correlations, the latest-pair change summary (median, counts moving more than 5 and 10), and the size-band volatility figures recomputed independently from the district CSV and matched (full QA §D).

   The QA report behind this status · the report also lists what it does not check.

   Each input metric’s own checks are on its metric tree (links above). Only the district-wide all-students series is covered by the packet’s 15 source-vs-database checks; that coverage is not claimed for any other block.

5. 5
   Assumptions & caveatsAssumptions and caveats

   None beyond the input metrics’ own assumptions.