Miami-DadeEnrollment declineeasy
Six years after the pandemic, two in three district-run schools are at least 10% smaller and one in seven has lost a third
Thesis
The pandemic did not cause a one-time drop that stabilised. Among the 325 district-run schools open in both 2019-20 and 2025-26, total enrollment fell 15.3% and the median school lost 16.7%. Sixty-three percent lost at least a tenth, 43% at least a fifth, 15% at least a third. Fifty-seven schools grew. The losses are concentrated in middle schools and, by region, in the central and southern parts of the county rather than the north, and the kindergarten pipeline says they are not over.
Supporting findings
- Distribution of school-level change 2019-20 → 2025-26: 10th percentile −36%, median −16.7%, 90th percentile +6%.
- By level: middle −23.3% (median school −24.5%), elementary −17.2%, K-8 −17.2%, high −9.0%.
- By the district's own region code (district-run regular schools open in both years): median change north −14.7%, central −18.8%, south −17.3%; the share losing a quarter or more is 27% north, 29% central, 33% south.
- Kindergarten ÷ grade 5 fell to 0.80 in 2025-26 (0.84 in 2024-25; 0.85–0.88 in the four years before the pandemic); kindergarten ÷ grade 12 is 0.70.
- The 35 schools on the 2026 lists lost more than their peers, but the unlisted schools in the bottom decile of change are the ones to watch.
Reporting directions
- Rank the bottom-decile schools by change and check each against the events table and the closure lists.
- Compare the regions; the school pages give the region code for every school, and the recipe query groups the change by it.
- Ask the district how the 2025-26 kindergarten class compares with its projection.
Where the numbers are
Methodology & replication recipe — the queries and sources behind the findings above.