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Miami-DadeThe 2026 closure listseasy

31 of the district's 54 emptiest schools are on no closure list, and 12 listed schools are at least half full

Thesis

Utilization is the strongest single predictor of appearing on the board's 2026 closure, consolidation, review and reassessment lists: schools under half of permanent capacity are flagged at 7 times the rate of the rest (23 of 54 versus 12 of 206). But the lists are not a utilization ranking. Thirty-one schools below 50% are on none of them, and twelve schools at or above 50% are (one, Golden Glades, exactly half), so something else in the Attendance Boundary Committee's process, or something not in the public record, separates the two groups.

Supporting findings

  • Universe: 260 district-run regular elementary, K-8 and middle schools with a 2024-25 October headcount and a permanent capacity in the state's FISH inventory; 35 appear on at least one 2026 board list (13.5%).
  • Under 50% utilization: 54 schools, 23 flagged (43%). At or above 50%: 206 schools, 12 flagged (6%). Lift 7.3×, Fisher exact p = 3.5 × 10⁻¹⁰. Under 33%: 7 of 12 flagged.
  • Utilization here is headcount ÷ permanent FISH capacity, the measure the board's own book prints; on the state's COFTE ÷ school-capacity measure 60 of the same 260 schools are below 50% (74 across all 316 district-run schools of every level).
  • The 35 listed schools are named in the analysis page's flagged-school table (Table 7); the 31 unlisted schools below 50% come straight out of the recipe query, and several sit in the same regions as listed schools.

Reporting directions

  • Ask the district what beyond utilization the ABC weighed: building condition and age, co-location offers from charter operators (Schools of Hope), magnet programs, transportation, board-member districts.
  • Compare the 12 listed above-50% schools with the 31 unlisted below-50% schools on the same public measures: five-year trend, K-to-grade-5 pipeline, per-pupil spending, school grade.
  • Ask whether the unlisted low-utilization schools are the next round; the board ordered a utilization dashboard in June 2026 that has not been published.

Where the numbers are

Methodology & replication recipe — the queries and sources behind the findings above.