District-run enrollment fell by 60,000 in nine years while charter enrollment rose by 24,000

Summary

Summed October membership by sector for every year 2016-17 → 2025-26 from the state file (district-run regular, charter, other), and computed school-level change for schools open in both 2019-20 and 2025-26.

Data sources

• Database tablemiami_schools

  One row per school number (MSID directory + CCD + GIS); sector, level, magnet status, activity code, region.

• Database tablemiami_school_year_metrics

  Long-format facts: (school_number, year, metric_key, subgroup) with value, suppressed, denominator, peer and district percentiles, and the residual-z columns.

• Cached outputdata/analysis/miami-enrollment.json

  The enrollment analysis packet: trend, school change, utilization, lift table, spending versus size.

• External datasetFLDOE Membership by District and School by Grade (Survey 2)

Steps

1. Sector totals by year (district-run regular vs charter vs other; the story's district-run series is the REGULAR sector only).

   SELECT m.year,
     CASE WHEN s.is_charter THEN 'charter' WHEN s.school_type = 'REGULAR' THEN 'district_run_regular' ELSE 'other' END AS sector,
     SUM(m.value) AS students, COUNT(*) AS schools
   FROM miami_school_year_metrics m JOIN miami_schools s USING (school_number)
   WHERE m.metric_key = 'enrollment_oct' AND m.subgroup = 'ALL' AND NOT m.suppressed
   GROUP BY 1, 2 ORDER BY 1, 2;

2. School-level change 2019-20 → 2025-26 (packet school_change.pre_pandemic_to_latest).

Reproduce

Follow docs/cities/miami/07_runbook.md: `make miami-discover-all`, parse the PDFs, run the loaders in order, `make miami-verify`, then the analysis scripts. The queries below run directly against the local Postgres.