data/analysis/philly_outliers_trends.json
Served verbatim from the project repository. Internal working document conventions apply: documents may reference file paths, branch names, and findings-ledger anchors from the repo.
{
"meta": {
"city": "Philadelphia (School District of Philadelphia)",
"metric": "chronic absenteeism = 100 - '% with 90%+ attendance'",
"model": "OLS: chronic ~ CEP poverty% + ELL% + IEP% + Black% + Hispanic% + log(enrollment); residual = actual - expected",
"covariate_note": "CEP poverty is near-inert here (~87% of schools at 100%; dropping it moves R2 0.617->0.608): the model is effectively race/ELL/IEP/size-adjusted, and poverty is only weakly controlled. Black%+Hispanic% alone give R2~0.46 (~75% of the fit).",
"model_years": [
"2020-2021",
"2021-2022",
"2022-2023",
"2023-2024",
"2024-2025"
],
"latest": "2024-2025",
"caveats": "~215 district-run schools (union 217; NOT ~300 — short, noisier lists than NYC's 1,450), and the highest-absenteeism alternative-education providers have no All-Students attendance row and are excluded; no pre-pandemic baseline (2020-21 onward, and 2020-21 was remote so its attendance is a different construct); single-district; derived metric; OLS on a bounded rate yields a few impossible negative predicted values; no published demographic-expected chronic-absenteeism value exists to cross-check the residual directly (see expected_value_context)."
},
"fit_by_year": {
"2020-2021": {
"n": 213,
"r2": 0.533
},
"2021-2022": {
"n": 214,
"r2": 0.574
},
"2022-2023": {
"n": 215,
"r2": 0.558
},
"2023-2024": {
"n": 216,
"r2": 0.559
},
"2024-2025": {
"n": 216,
"r2": 0.617
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"district_mean_ca_by_year": {
"2020-2021": 32.4,
"2021-2022": 43.6,
"2022-2023": 40.6,
"2023-2024": 40.0,
"2024-2025": 39.6
},
"negative_predicted_ca_count": {
"2020-2021": 8,
"2021-2022": 4,
"2022-2023": 0,
"2023-2024": 0,
"2024-2025": 1
},
"rtm_corr_baseline_vs_change": -0.447,
"persistent_decile": {
"n_beating": 18,
"n_worse": 16
},
"note": "2021-22 is the district PEAK (mean CA 43.6); trend 'improvement' is partly district-wide decline + regression to the mean (corr(baseline, change) reported above)."
},
"beating_the_odds_2024_25": [
{
"ulcs": "6460",
"name": "HILL-FREEDMAN WORLD ACADEMY",
"level": "Middle-High",
"ca": 26.6,
"predicted": 56.0,
"residual": -29.4,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 641
},
{
"ulcs": "4480",
"name": "OVERBROOK EDUCATIONAL CENTER",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 23.5,
"predicted": 51.7,
"residual": -28.2,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 260
},
{
"ulcs": "7370",
"name": "GROVER WASHINGTON JR. MIDDLE",
"level": "Middle",
"ca": 20.5,
"predicted": 46.6,
"residual": -26.1,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 399
},
{
"ulcs": "6220",
"name": "ELEANOR C. EMLEN SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary",
"ca": 30.8,
"predicted": 51.3,
"residual": -20.5,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 267
},
{
"ulcs": "7270",
"name": "THOMAS K. FINLETTER SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 27.6,
"predicted": 47.2,
"residual": -19.6,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 607
},
{
"ulcs": "7310",
"name": "FELTONVILLE INTERMEDIATE",
"level": "Elementary",
"ca": 28.2,
"predicted": 47.8,
"residual": -19.6,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 517
},
{
"ulcs": "6480",
"name": "AMY NORTHWEST",
"level": "Middle",
"ca": 21.7,
"predicted": 40.3,
"residual": -18.6,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 150
},
{
"ulcs": "4320",
"name": "ROBERT E. LAMBERTON ELEMENTARY",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 39.5,
"predicted": 57.5,
"residual": -18.0,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 327
},
{
"ulcs": "2680",
"name": "SCIENCE LDSHP ACADEMY @ BEEBER",
"level": "Middle-High",
"ca": 14.6,
"predicted": 31.8,
"residual": -17.3,
"cep": 90.0,
"enroll": 533
},
{
"ulcs": "5170",
"name": "JULIA DE BURGOS ELEMENTARY",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 40.5,
"predicted": 55.7,
"residual": -15.2,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 550
},
{
"ulcs": "7500",
"name": "FELTONVILLE ARTS & SCIENCES",
"level": "Middle",
"ca": 29.2,
"predicted": 44.0,
"residual": -14.8,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 542
},
{
"ulcs": "6410",
"name": "COOK-WISSAHICKON SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 11.6,
"predicted": 25.7,
"residual": -14.2,
"cep": 78.0,
"enroll": 414
},
{
"ulcs": "2210",
"name": "BACHE-MARTIN SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 26.8,
"predicted": 40.8,
"residual": -14.0,
"cep": 83.0,
"enroll": 581
},
{
"ulcs": "5150",
"name": "WILLIAM W. BODINE HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 15.8,
"predicted": 29.8,
"residual": -14.0,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 491
},
{
"ulcs": "5430",
"name": "AMY 5 AT JAMES MARTIN",
"level": "Middle",
"ca": 31.2,
"predicted": 44.9,
"residual": -13.7,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 185
}
],
"worse_than_predicted_2024_25": [
{
"ulcs": "4020",
"name": "OVERBROOK HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 76.5,
"predicted": 52.0,
"residual": 24.5,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 441
},
{
"ulcs": "4380",
"name": "THOMAS M. PEIRCE SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary",
"ca": 62.5,
"predicted": 38.8,
"residual": 23.7,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 273
},
{
"ulcs": "2370",
"name": "DELAPLAINE MCDANIEL SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 58.5,
"predicted": 36.4,
"residual": 22.1,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 230
},
{
"ulcs": "4440",
"name": "DR. ETHEL ALLEN SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 63.5,
"predicted": 42.0,
"residual": 21.5,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 306
},
{
"ulcs": "5020",
"name": "THOMAS EDISON HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 78.1,
"predicted": 57.0,
"residual": 21.1,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 1020
},
{
"ulcs": "7470",
"name": "BRIDESBURG SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 42.0,
"predicted": 21.3,
"residual": 20.7,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 525
},
{
"ulcs": "5180",
"name": "VAUX BIG PICTURE HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 67.8,
"predicted": 49.8,
"residual": 18.0,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 287
},
{
"ulcs": "5620",
"name": "THE U SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 64.6,
"predicted": 47.0,
"residual": 17.6,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 195
},
{
"ulcs": "1490",
"name": "RUDOLPH BLANKENBURG SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 63.2,
"predicted": 45.7,
"residual": 17.5,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 257
},
{
"ulcs": "4270",
"name": "WILLIAM DICK SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 64.5,
"predicted": 47.1,
"residual": 17.4,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 343
},
{
"ulcs": "2160",
"name": "HORACE FURNESS HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 47.8,
"predicted": 30.8,
"residual": 17.0,
"cep": 97.0,
"enroll": 896
},
{
"ulcs": "4350",
"name": "RHODES ELEMENTARY SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 68.7,
"predicted": 52.0,
"residual": 16.7,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 355
},
{
"ulcs": "2000",
"name": "SOUTH PHILADELPHIA HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 65.4,
"predicted": 48.8,
"residual": 16.6,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 656
},
{
"ulcs": "5700",
"name": "KENSINGTON HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"ca": 69.8,
"predicted": 53.5,
"residual": 16.4,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 459
},
{
"ulcs": "1260",
"name": "BENJAMIN B. COMEGYS SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"ca": 56.0,
"predicted": 40.0,
"residual": 16.0,
"cep": 100.0,
"enroll": 252
}
],
"residual_stability": {
"consecutive": [
{
"pair": "2020-2021->2021-2022",
"n": 213,
"r": 0.742
},
{
"pair": "2021-2022->2022-2023",
"n": 213,
"r": 0.79
},
{
"pair": "2022-2023->2023-2024",
"n": 215,
"r": 0.828
},
{
"pair": "2023-2024->2024-2025",
"n": 216,
"r": 0.838
}
],
"long_arc": {
"pair": "2020-2021->2024-2025",
"n": 212,
"r": 0.574
}
},
"persistent_outliers": {
"beating_ge3yr": [
{
"ulcs": "4480",
"name": "OVERBROOK EDUCATIONAL CENTER",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6460",
"name": "HILL-FREEDMAN WORLD ACADEMY",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "7500",
"name": "FELTONVILLE ARTS & SCIENCES",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6260",
"name": "HENRY H. HOUSTON SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6480",
"name": "AMY NORTHWEST",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "5150",
"name": "WILLIAM W. BODINE HIGH SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "2680",
"name": "SCIENCE LDSHP ACADEMY @ BEEBER",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6210",
"name": "FRANKLIN S. EDMONDS SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "7370",
"name": "GROVER WASHINGTON JR. MIDDLE",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4030",
"name": "ENGINEERING & SCIENCE HIGH SCH",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "2580",
"name": "ELIZA B. KIRKBRIDE SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "7270",
"name": "THOMAS K. FINLETTER SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6220",
"name": "ELEANOR C. EMLEN SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "6270",
"name": "JENKS ACADEMY ARTS & SCIENCES",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "5070",
"name": "PARKWAY-NORTHWEST HIGH SCHOOL",
"years": 4
}
],
"worse_ge3yr": [
{
"ulcs": "4460",
"name": "TANNER DUCKREY SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4300",
"name": "EDWARD HESTON SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "1370",
"name": "MITCHELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4440",
"name": "DR. ETHEL ALLEN SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4380",
"name": "THOMAS M. PEIRCE SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4570",
"name": "GEN. GEORGE G. MEADE SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "1260",
"name": "BENJAMIN B. COMEGYS SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "1200",
"name": "JOHN BARRY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "2320",
"name": "STEPHEN GIRARD SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "7360",
"name": "JOHN MARSHALL SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "4020",
"name": "OVERBROOK HIGH SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "2160",
"name": "HORACE FURNESS HIGH SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "7470",
"name": "BRIDESBURG SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "2370",
"name": "DELAPLAINE MCDANIEL SCHOOL",
"years": 5
},
{
"ulcs": "5400",
"name": "RICHMOND SCHOOL",
"years": 5
}
],
"n_beating": 38,
"n_worse": 39
},
"trends": {
"window": "2021-2022 -> 2024-2025 (mid 2023-2024)",
"n_panel": 213,
"n_improving": 45,
"n_worsening": 7,
"top_improving": [
{
"ulcs": "4470",
"name": "RICHARD WRIGHT SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary",
"path": [
74.9,
59.5,
44.0
],
"delta": -31.0
},
{
"ulcs": "5170",
"name": "JULIA DE BURGOS ELEMENTARY",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
62.7,
40.8,
40.5
],
"delta": -22.1
},
{
"ulcs": "5400",
"name": "RICHMOND SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary",
"path": [
63.2,
44.5,
42.3
],
"delta": -20.9
},
{
"ulcs": "6340",
"name": "JOSEPH PENNELL ELEMENTARY",
"level": "Elementary",
"path": [
58.0,
48.7,
37.1
],
"delta": -20.9
},
{
"ulcs": "5500",
"name": "THURGOOD MARSHALL SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
65.3,
45.5,
45.3
],
"delta": -20.0
},
{
"ulcs": "1250",
"name": "JOSEPH W. CATHARINE SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary",
"path": [
43.9,
27.0,
24.7
],
"delta": -19.3
},
{
"ulcs": "5390",
"name": "POTTER-THOMAS SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
70.0,
53.5,
50.8
],
"delta": -19.2
},
{
"ulcs": "1290",
"name": "ANDREW HAMILTON SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
71.0,
56.9,
51.9
],
"delta": -19.1
},
{
"ulcs": "2630",
"name": "GEORGE SHARSWOOD SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
48.8,
35.9,
30.4
],
"delta": -18.4
},
{
"ulcs": "1370",
"name": "MITCHELL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
68.3,
57.9,
50.4
],
"delta": -17.8
},
{
"ulcs": "6230",
"name": "FITLER ACADEMICS PLUS",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
47.4,
31.7,
29.8
],
"delta": -17.6
},
{
"ulcs": "6320",
"name": "MIFFLIN, THOMAS SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
44.2,
32.8,
27.2
],
"delta": -17.0
},
{
"ulcs": "4300",
"name": "EDWARD HESTON SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
63.8,
57.3,
47.2
],
"delta": -16.6
},
{
"ulcs": "5480",
"name": "GEN. PHILIP KEARNY SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
58.1,
46.8,
42.1
],
"delta": -16.0
},
{
"ulcs": "6030",
"name": "ROXBOROUGH HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"path": [
74.2,
59.5,
58.2
],
"delta": -16.0
}
],
"top_worsening": [
{
"ulcs": "8560",
"name": "THE WORKSHOP SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"path": [
21.6,
53.6,
57.7
],
"delta": 36.0
},
{
"ulcs": "4350",
"name": "RHODES ELEMENTARY SCHOOL",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
52.0,
62.9,
68.7
],
"delta": 16.6
},
{
"ulcs": "7130",
"name": "GEN. LOUIS WAGNER MIDDLE SCH.",
"level": "Middle",
"path": [
27.7,
29.1,
43.3
],
"delta": 15.6
},
{
"ulcs": "5610",
"name": "BUILDING 21",
"level": "High",
"path": [
38.4,
41.2,
50.9
],
"delta": 12.5
},
{
"ulcs": "4480",
"name": "OVERBROOK EDUCATIONAL CENTER",
"level": "Elementary-Middle",
"path": [
13.8,
21.4,
23.5
],
"delta": 9.7
},
{
"ulcs": "1190",
"name": "MOTIVATION HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "High",
"path": [
24.9,
30.1,
33.5
],
"delta": 8.6
},
{
"ulcs": "5160",
"name": "PENN TREATY HIGH SCHOOL",
"level": "Middle-High",
"path": [
57.6,
65.0,
66.1
],
"delta": 8.5
}
]
},
"expected_value_context": {
"summary": "Neither SDP nor PA publishes a demographic-conditional EXPECTED chronic-absenteeism value for 2020-21..2024-25, so this residual has no external oracle to validate it directly. Cross-check the INPUT (actual CA) instead, and treat the frameworks below as conceptual references.",
"frameworks": [
{
"name": "SDP School Progress Report (SPR) - Peer Rank",
"kind": "demographic peer comparison",
"relation": "The true structural analogue of our model (peers on poverty, special-ed, race, English fluency - nearly our covariates), BUT an ordinal rank not a predicted value, bundled into the 'Climate' domain, and DISCONTINUED ~2018 when SPR became SPREE - entirely pre-pandemic, so it cannot cross-check our 2020-21+ residuals. Prior art only."
},
{
"name": "SDP SPREE - School Metric Scores (current)",
"kind": "fixed district-goal benchmark",
"relation": "Ships '% attending 90%+' (= our input, 100-CA) plus prior-year value + change + an Improving/Declining tier, benchmarked to a fixed district goal (~82%), NOT to peers. Validates our actual-CA input (+/-1.5pp) and sanity-checks the mover lists; no peer/expected value."
},
{
"name": "Future Ready PA Index - Regular Attendance",
"kind": "fixed statewide standard",
"relation": "Same metric (100-CA) against an absolute statewide band (BLUE >=94.1% = 75th pct of 2016-17), NOT demographic-adjusted - a high-poverty school can be RED yet strongly positive on our residual (the gap this method fills). Input validator, not a residual oracle."
},
{
"name": "PVAAS (PA value-added)",
"kind": "model-based expected value",
"relation": "PA's one true expected-vs-actual model, but for ACADEMIC achievement only - no attendance version exists. Evidence PA trusts expected-value modeling but never applied it to attendance, which is the whitespace this occupies."
}
]
}
}