data/analysis/miami-residual-z.json
Served verbatim from the project repository. Internal working document conventions apply: documents may reference file paths, branch names, and findings-ledger anchors from the repo.
{
"meta": {
"generated_at": "2026-09-16T21:34:34.531415+00:00",
"config_sha256_12": "d87f0d4de921",
"n_cells": 19457,
"n_eligible": 19457,
"outcomes": [
"ela_achievement",
"math_achievement",
"science_achievement",
"learning_gains_ela",
"learning_gains_math",
"learning_gains_ela_l25",
"learning_gains_math_l25",
"graduation_rate_4yr",
"chronic_absenteeism_rate",
"absent_21plus_rate",
"attendance_rate",
"sesir_total_per_100"
],
"covariates": {
"numeric": [
"pct_black",
"pct_hispanic",
"pct_white",
"pct_ell_lower_bound",
"pct_econ_disadv",
"enrollment_oct"
],
"categorical": [
"sector",
"magnet",
"level"
]
},
"method": "WLS per outcome x year on every school with the outcome (closed schools included); z = resid / sqrt(tau^2 + se_i^2) with tau^2 = max(0, s^2 - mean_w se_i^2) and s^2 dof-corrected; flags at |z| >= 2; persistence 2 of the last 3 calendar years within regime. Descriptive, not causal."
},
"preregistered": {
"P1": {
"rule": "rho(z, gains) > 0 and p < 0.001, every fitted year",
"applies_to": [
"ela_achievement",
"math_achievement"
]
},
"P2": {
"rule": "rho(z, gains) >= rho(raw, gains), every fitted year",
"applies_to": [
"ela_achievement",
"math_achievement"
],
"caveat": "empirical rank-correlation comparison; a demographic gradient does not predetermine its result, and lowest-quartile gains use the same gain rules"
},
"P3": {
"rule": "|rho(z, pct_econ_disadv)| < 0.10, every fitted year",
"applies_to": "all"
},
"P4": {
"rule": "share of fitted outside [0,100] < 2%",
"applies_to": "percent-scale outcomes"
},
"P5": {
"rule": "flagged share in [2%, 20%]",
"applies_to": "all"
}
},
"outcomes": {
"ela_achievement": {
"config": {
"direction": "HIGHER_BETTER",
"scale": "percent",
"n_rule": "grades:3-10",
"comparability_regime": "fl_assessment",
"validation_reference": "learning_gains_ela",
"min_n": 30,
"z_threshold": 2.0
},
"years": {
"2018-19": {
"n_cells": 437,
"n_eligible": 436,
"ineligible_low_n": 1,
"ineligible_missing_covariates": 0,
"r2_weighted": 0.7607,
"s_weighted_rmse": 8.987,
"tau_between": 8.75,
"mean_sampling_se": 2.051,
"sampling_error_model": "percent",
"k_parameters": 15,
"n_closed_or_inactive_included": 32,
"flagged_year": false,
"beta": {
"intercept": 121.5525,
"pct_black": -0.463,
"pct_hispanic": -0.1607,
"pct_white": -0.2481,
"pct_ell_lower_bound": -0.3766,
"pct_econ_disadv": -0.3577,
"log_enrollment_oct": 0.3448,
"sector_district": -3.134,
"magnet_other": -16.2957,
"level_Combination": 8.3753,
"level_Elementary": 20.0903,
"level_High": -0.3578,
"level_K-12": 15.1336,
"level_K-8": 11.1746,
"level_Middle": 7.6863
},
"fitted_below_0": 0,
"fitted_above_100": 6,
"flagged_positive": 16,
"flagged_negative": 8,
"z_p10": -1.25,
"z_p50": -0.008,
"z_p90": 1.404,
"median_n": 347.0,
"median_se_i": 2.306,
"checks": {
"P1": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.4475,
"p": 9.30194489539835e-23,
"n": 434,
"pass": true
},
"P2": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.4475,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.8461,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.5816,
"pass": false,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.7213,
"sd_fitted": 16.235,
"sd_resid": 9.549
},
"P2_lowest_quartile_gains": {
"reference": "learning_gains_ela_l25",
"n": 430,
"rho_z_gains": 0.342,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.5672,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.2625,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.4354,
"z_beats_raw": false,
"note": "not pre-registered; the lowest quartile is relative to the school's prior-year assessment groups and uses the same gain rules, including applicable level-holding rules"
},
"P3": {
"rho_z_econ": -0.0722,
"pass": true
},
"P4": {
"share_fitted_outside_0_100": 0.0138,
"pass": true
},
"P5": {
"flagged_share": 0.055,
"pass": true
}
},
"ell_bounds_sensitivity": {
"baseline_covariate": "pct_ell_lower_bound",
"alternate_covariate": "pct_ell_upper_bound",
"n_cells": 436,
"n_uncertain": 372,
"baseline_ell_coefficient": -0.37657090050084,
"upper_ell_coefficient": -0.3731093950792396,
"upper_r2_weighted": 0.760568265932676,
"upper_tau_between": 8.751420265196293,
"flag_changes": 1,
"max_abs_z_change": 1.1332619672533895,
"rho_z_baseline_vs_upper": 0.9959461601888578,
"note": "same eligible schools; all lower endpoints versus all upper endpoints, not a bound on every possible hidden-count allocation"
}
},
"2021-22": {
"n_cells": 449,
"n_eligible": 447,
"ineligible_low_n": 2,
"ineligible_missing_covariates": 0,
"r2_weighted": 0.742,
"s_weighted_rmse": 9.425,
"tau_between": 9.173,
"mean_sampling_se": 2.163,
"sampling_error_model": "percent",
"k_parameters": 15,
"n_closed_or_inactive_included": 25,
"flagged_year": false,
"beta": {
"intercept": 165.4378,
"pct_black": -0.9039,
"pct_hispanic": -0.5983,
"pct_white": -0.7098,
"pct_ell_lower_bound": -0.3961,
"pct_econ_disadv": -0.3692,
"log_enrollment_oct": -0.0187,
"sector_district": -1.6249,
"magnet_other": -15.922,
"level_Combination": 1.801,
"level_Elementary": 18.3719,
"level_High": -0.7059,
"level_K-12": 6.5142,
"level_K-8": 9.5986,
"level_Middle": 4.7297
},
"fitted_below_0": 0,
"fitted_above_100": 3,
"flagged_positive": 14,
"flagged_negative": 6,
"z_p10": -1.354,
"z_p50": -0.0,
"z_p90": 1.345,
"median_n": 323.0,
"median_se_i": 2.41,
"checks": {
"P1": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.492,
"p": 1.9158421528457836e-28,
"n": 444,
"pass": true
},
"P2": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.492,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.7602,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.4268,
"pass": false,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.5785,
"sd_fitted": 15.938,
"sd_resid": 9.928
},
"P2_lowest_quartile_gains": {
"reference": "learning_gains_ela_l25",
"n": 441,
"rho_z_gains": 0.339,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.5095,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.1975,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.359,
"z_beats_raw": false,
"note": "not pre-registered; the lowest quartile is relative to the school's prior-year assessment groups and uses the same gain rules, including applicable level-holding rules"
},
"P3": {
"rho_z_econ": -0.0634,
"pass": true
},
"P4": {
"share_fitted_outside_0_100": 0.0067,
"pass": true
},
"P5": {
"flagged_share": 0.0447,
"pass": true
}
},
"ell_bounds_sensitivity": {
"baseline_covariate": "pct_ell_lower_bound",
"alternate_covariate": "pct_ell_upper_bound",
"n_cells": 447,
"n_uncertain": 368,
"baseline_ell_coefficient": -0.3960547219275727,
"upper_ell_coefficient": -0.40186367487190355,
"upper_r2_weighted": 0.7436366226305382,
"upper_tau_between": 9.142677598243283,
"flag_changes": 2,
"max_abs_z_change": 0.4054984289808391,
"rho_z_baseline_vs_upper": 0.9972472902845791,
"note": "same eligible schools; all lower endpoints versus all upper endpoints, not a bound on every possible hidden-count allocation"
}
},
"2022-23": {
"n_cells": 462,
"n_eligible": 460,
"ineligible_low_n": 2,
"ineligible_missing_covariates": 0,
"r2_weighted": 0.7012,
"s_weighted_rmse": 8.966,
"tau_between": 8.689,
"mean_sampling_se": 2.211,
"sampling_error_model": "percent",
"k_parameters": 15,
"n_closed_or_inactive_included": 23,
"flagged_year": false,
"beta": {
"intercept": 159.651,
"pct_black": -0.9854,
"pct_hispanic": -0.7032,
"pct_white": -0.6988,
"pct_ell_lower_bound": -0.4502,
"pct_econ_disadv": -0.1977,
"log_enrollment_oct": 0.2197,
"sector_district": 2.4687,
"magnet_other": -14.4249,
"level_Combination": -5.1011,
"level_Elementary": 15.925,
"level_High": -1.2798,
"level_K-12": 3.2086,
"level_K-8": 8.2374,
"level_Middle": 3.6104
},
"fitted_below_0": 0,
"fitted_above_100": 1,
"flagged_positive": 13,
"flagged_negative": 16,
"z_p10": -1.474,
"z_p50": 0.028,
"z_p90": 1.397,
"median_n": 315.5,
"median_se_i": 2.481,
"checks": {
"P1": {
"pass": null,
"note": "learning_gains_ela not published for 2022-23"
},
"P2": {
"pass": null,
"note": "learning_gains_ela not published for 2022-23"
},
"P3": {
"rho_z_econ": 0.0184,
"pass": true
},
"P4": {
"share_fitted_outside_0_100": 0.0022,
"pass": true
},
"P5": {
"flagged_share": 0.063,
"pass": true
}
},
"ell_bounds_sensitivity": {
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"alternate_covariate": "pct_ell_upper_bound",
"n_cells": 460,
"n_uncertain": 383,
"baseline_ell_coefficient": -0.45019641527949933,
"upper_ell_coefficient": -0.45327005650163726,
"upper_r2_weighted": 0.7041266696387998,
"upper_tau_between": 8.64341679661187,
"flag_changes": 6,
"max_abs_z_change": 0.6620577509385426,
"rho_z_baseline_vs_upper": 0.9962067709286866,
"note": "same eligible schools; all lower endpoints versus all upper endpoints, not a bound on every possible hidden-count allocation"
}
},
"2023-24": {
"n_cells": 463,
"n_eligible": 459,
"ineligible_low_n": 4,
"ineligible_missing_covariates": 0,
"r2_weighted": 0.6772,
"s_weighted_rmse": 9.308,
"tau_between": 9.05,
"mean_sampling_se": 2.174,
"sampling_error_model": "percent",
"k_parameters": 15,
"n_closed_or_inactive_included": 19,
"flagged_year": false,
"beta": {
"intercept": 143.5106,
"pct_black": -0.8157,
"pct_hispanic": -0.5035,
"pct_white": -0.4552,
"pct_ell_lower_bound": -0.4837,
"pct_econ_disadv": -0.1357,
"log_enrollment_oct": 0.0189,
"sector_district": 0.5251,
"magnet_other": -13.3494,
"level_Combination": -9.0864,
"level_Elementary": 15.208,
"level_High": -1.5596,
"level_K-12": 3.1416,
"level_K-8": 7.9357,
"level_Middle": 3.7106
},
"fitted_below_0": 0,
"fitted_above_100": 2,
"flagged_positive": 14,
"flagged_negative": 23,
"z_p10": -1.467,
"z_p50": 0.098,
"z_p90": 1.398,
"median_n": 324.0,
"median_se_i": 2.436,
"checks": {
"P1": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.5478,
"p": 4.580390191552121e-37,
"n": 456,
"pass": true
},
"P2": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.5478,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.7639,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.4099,
"pass": false,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.4837,
"sd_fitted": 13.297,
"sd_resid": 10.361
},
"P2_lowest_quartile_gains": {
"reference": "learning_gains_ela_l25",
"n": 448,
"rho_z_gains": 0.2599,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.3388,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.1459,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.1802,
"z_beats_raw": false,
"note": "not pre-registered; the lowest quartile is relative to the school's prior-year assessment groups and uses the same gain rules, including applicable level-holding rules"
},
"P3": {
"rho_z_econ": -0.0141,
"pass": true
},
"P4": {
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"pass": true
},
"P5": {
"flagged_share": 0.0806,
"pass": true
}
},
"ell_bounds_sensitivity": {
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"alternate_covariate": "pct_ell_upper_bound",
"n_cells": 459,
"n_uncertain": 369,
"baseline_ell_coefficient": -0.48373131884168036,
"upper_ell_coefficient": -0.4838248538661839,
"upper_r2_weighted": 0.6793367541246396,
"upper_tau_between": 9.018787099103804,
"flag_changes": 6,
"max_abs_z_change": 0.47657468449675033,
"rho_z_baseline_vs_upper": 0.9958612696391764,
"note": "same eligible schools; all lower endpoints versus all upper endpoints, not a bound on every possible hidden-count allocation"
}
},
"2024-25": {
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"n_eligible": 460,
"ineligible_low_n": 2,
"ineligible_missing_covariates": 0,
"r2_weighted": 0.679,
"s_weighted_rmse": 9.071,
"tau_between": 8.812,
"mean_sampling_se": 2.154,
"sampling_error_model": "percent",
"k_parameters": 15,
"n_closed_or_inactive_included": 18,
"flagged_year": false,
"beta": {
"intercept": 123.9964,
"pct_black": -0.4658,
"pct_hispanic": -0.2506,
"pct_white": -0.272,
"pct_ell_lower_bound": -0.4657,
"pct_econ_disadv": -0.1832,
"log_enrollment_oct": -0.0087,
"sector_district": -0.5778,
"magnet_other": -12.6688,
"level_Combination": -7.8355,
"level_Elementary": 14.0342,
"level_High": -2.005,
"level_K-12": 4.348,
"level_K-8": 8.1619,
"level_Middle": 4.7116
},
"fitted_below_0": 0,
"fitted_above_100": 2,
"flagged_positive": 12,
"flagged_negative": 17,
"z_p10": -1.415,
"z_p50": 0.081,
"z_p90": 1.372,
"median_n": 323.0,
"median_se_i": 2.395,
"checks": {
"P1": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.5314,
"p": 1.337139288645049e-34,
"n": 456,
"pass": true
},
"P2": {
"rho_z_gains": 0.5314,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.7827,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.4766,
"pass": false,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.5187,
"sd_fitted": 12.852,
"sd_resid": 10.154
},
"P2_lowest_quartile_gains": {
"reference": "learning_gains_ela_l25",
"n": 450,
"rho_z_gains": 0.2937,
"rho_raw_gains": 0.3597,
"rho_econ_gains": -0.1601,
"rho_fitted_gains": 0.1848,
"z_beats_raw": false,
"note": "not pre-registered; the lowest quartile is relative to the school's prior-year assessment groups and uses the same gain rules, including applicable level-holding rules"
},
"P3": {
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"pass": true
},
"P4": {
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"pass": true
},
"P5": {
"flagged_share": 0.063,
"pass": true
}
},
"ell_bounds_sensitivity": {
"baseline_covariate": "pct_ell_lower_bound",
"alternate_covariate": "pct_ell_upper_bound",
"n_cells": 460,
"n_uncertain": 383,
"baseline_ell_coefficient": -0.46568468558741855,
"upper_ell_coefficient": -0.4731530385670338,
"upper_r2_weighted": 0.682704859978494,
"upper_tau_between": 8.757781500193804,
"flag_changes": 2,
"max_abs_z_change": 0.44668200492110643,
"rho_z_baseline_vs_upper": 0.9966128713109313,
"note": "same eligible schools; all lower endpoints versus all upper endpoints, not a bound on every possible hidden-count allocation"
}
}
},
"ablation": [
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "ALL (intercept only)",
"r2_weighted": 0.0,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.4654,
"flag_changes": 29,
"flag_change_share": 0.0665,
"rho_z_gains": 0.8462
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "pct_black",
"r2_weighted": 0.7594,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9965,
"flag_changes": 5,
"flag_change_share": 0.0115,
"rho_z_gains": 0.454
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "pct_hispanic",
"r2_weighted": 0.7605,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9995,
"flag_changes": 2,
"flag_change_share": 0.0046,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4489
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "pct_white",
"r2_weighted": 0.7603,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.999,
"flag_changes": 3,
"flag_change_share": 0.0069,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4505
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "pct_ell_lower_bound",
"r2_weighted": 0.7262,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9264,
"flag_changes": 14,
"flag_change_share": 0.0321,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4292
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "pct_econ_disadv",
"r2_weighted": 0.7073,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9024,
"flag_changes": 17,
"flag_change_share": 0.039,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4998
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "enrollment_oct",
"r2_weighted": 0.7606,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9997,
"flag_changes": 3,
"flag_change_share": 0.0069,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4456
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
"dropped": "sector",
"r2_weighted": 0.7576,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9928,
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"flag_change_share": 0.0115,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4465
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
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"rho_z_gains": 0.4418
},
{
"year": "2018-19",
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"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.8377,
"flag_changes": 26,
"flag_change_share": 0.0596,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4518
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
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"r2_weighted": 0.0,
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"flag_changes": 27,
"flag_change_share": 0.0604,
"rho_z_gains": 0.7608
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
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"rho_z_gains": 0.5078
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{
"year": "2021-22",
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},
{
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"rho_z_gains": 0.5059
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
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"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9202,
"flag_changes": 26,
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"rho_z_gains": 0.4876
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
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"flag_change_share": 0.0425,
"rho_z_gains": 0.5129
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
"dropped": "enrollment_oct",
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"flag_changes": 1,
"flag_change_share": 0.0022,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4921
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
"dropped": "sector",
"r2_weighted": 0.741,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9982,
"flag_changes": 2,
"flag_change_share": 0.0045,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4876
},
{
"year": "2021-22",
"dropped": "magnet",
"r2_weighted": 0.703,
"rho_z_full_vs_ablated": 0.9489,
"flag_changes": 16,
"flag_change_share": 0.0358,
"rho_z_gains": 0.4902
},
{
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