data/analysis/california_replication.json
Served verbatim from the project repository. Internal working document conventions apply: documents may reference file paths, branch names, and findings-ledger anchors from the repo.
{
"meta": {
"state": "California (CDE)",
"source": "CDE downloadable Chronic Absenteeism files (school/district/county/state)",
"metric": "CDE-published chronic absenteeism rate = chronically absent / eligible cumulative enrollment (absent >=10% of days enrolled) — an OFFICIAL rate, not derived, unlike the Philadelphia attendance-threshold proxy",
"grade_resolution": "grade SPANS (K/TK-K, 1-3, 4-6, 7-8, 9-12), coarser than the single grades available for NYC/Philadelphia",
"years": [
"2016-17",
"2017-18",
"2018-19",
"2020-21",
"2021-22",
"2022-23",
"2023-24",
"2024-25"
],
"prepandemic": "2018-19",
"peak": "2021-22",
"latest": "2024-25",
"note": "statewide ~10,000 schools; genuine pre-pandemic baseline enables the distribution-shift view"
},
"per_span": {
"2016-17": {
"K": 14.1,
"1-3": 8.1,
"4-6": 7.0,
"7-8": 9.1,
"9-12": 15.6,
"overall": 10.9
},
"2017-18": {
"K": 14.2,
"1-3": 8.4,
"4-6": 7.5,
"7-8": 9.5,
"9-12": 15.8,
"overall": 11.2
},
"2018-19": {
"K": 15.7,
"1-3": 9.5,
"4-6": 8.4,
"7-8": 10.4,
"9-12": 16.6,
"overall": 12.2
},
"2020-21": {
"K": 15.6,
"1-3": 13.2,
"4-6": 11.8,
"7-8": 11.7,
"9-12": 17.7,
"overall": 14.3
},
"2021-22": {
"K": 40.4,
"1-3": 31.1,
"4-6": 27.3,
"7-8": 26.9,
"9-12": 30.6,
"overall": 30.2
},
"2022-23": {
"K": 36.4,
"1-3": 24.5,
"4-6": 20.5,
"7-8": 23.0,
"9-12": 26.7,
"overall": 25.1
},
"2023-24": {
"K": 26.2,
"1-3": 17.6,
"4-6": 16.1,
"7-8": 19.4,
"9-12": 24.6,
"overall": 20.6
},
"2024-25": {
"K": 23.2,
"1-3": 15.9,
"4-6": 15.1,
"7-8": 18.3,
"9-12": 24.5,
"overall": 19.6
}
},
"grade_groups": {
"2016-17": {
"K": 14.1,
"g1_8": 8.0,
"g9_12": 15.6
},
"2017-18": {
"K": 14.2,
"g1_8": 8.3,
"g9_12": 15.8
},
"2018-19": {
"K": 15.7,
"g1_8": 9.3,
"g9_12": 16.6
},
"2020-21": {
"K": 15.6,
"g1_8": 12.3,
"g9_12": 17.7
},
"2021-22": {
"K": 40.4,
"g1_8": 28.6,
"g9_12": 30.6
},
"2022-23": {
"K": 36.4,
"g1_8": 22.6,
"g9_12": 26.7
},
"2023-24": {
"K": 26.2,
"g1_8": 17.5,
"g9_12": 24.6
},
"2024-25": {
"K": 23.2,
"g1_8": 16.2,
"g9_12": 24.5
}
},
"tail_by_level": {
"2024-25": {
"Combined (K-12)": {
"n": 649,
"n_gt50": 124,
"pct_gt50": 19.1,
"median": 21.8
},
"Elementary-Middle": {
"n": 2005,
"n_gt50": 19,
"pct_gt50": 0.9,
"median": 16.8
},
"Elementary": {
"n": 4871,
"n_gt50": 28,
"pct_gt50": 0.6,
"median": 17.4
},
"High": {
"n": 1969,
"n_gt50": 550,
"pct_gt50": 27.9,
"median": 27.3
},
"Middle": {
"n": 375,
"n_gt50": 11,
"pct_gt50": 2.9,
"median": 18.9
},
"Other/Ungraded": {
"n": 67,
"n_gt50": 23,
"pct_gt50": 34.3,
"median": 36.4
}
},
"2018-19": {
"High": {
"n": 1970,
"n_gt50": 504,
"pct_gt50": 25.6,
"median": 18.3
},
"Elementary-Middle": {
"n": 1991,
"n_gt50": 16,
"pct_gt50": 0.8,
"median": 9.5
},
"Combined (K-12)": {
"n": 666,
"n_gt50": 126,
"pct_gt50": 18.9,
"median": 17.6
},
"Elementary": {
"n": 4923,
"n_gt50": 16,
"pct_gt50": 0.3,
"median": 9.7
},
"Middle": {
"n": 390,
"n_gt50": 18,
"pct_gt50": 4.6,
"median": 10.4
},
"Other/Ungraded": {
"n": 64,
"n_gt50": 16,
"pct_gt50": 25.0,
"median": 27.3
}
}
},
"distribution_shift": {
"2018-19": {
"n": 10004,
"median": 11.0,
"mean": 16.4,
"pct_gt50": 7.0,
"bins_share": [
44.7,
34.0,
9.5,
2.9,
1.9,
2.1,
1.8,
1.5,
1.0,
0.6,
0.1
]
},
"2024-25": {
"n": 9936,
"median": 18.9,
"mean": 23.0,
"pct_gt50": 7.6,
"bins_share": [
20.0,
33.1,
24.9,
10.7,
3.5,
1.8,
1.7,
1.8,
1.4,
1.0,
0.2
]
}
},
"k_effect": {
"n_schools": 5798,
"median_step": 1.3,
"n_over_1pp": 3323,
"max_step": 17.6,
"top_movers": [
{
"cds": "19647330117028",
"name": "Dr. James Edward Jones Primary Center",
"r_k8": 37.6,
"r_18": 20.0,
"step": 17.6,
"k_share": 63.3,
"n": 109
},
{
"cds": "19647330109264",
"name": "Lexington Avenue Primary Center",
"r_k8": 37.2,
"r_18": 23.5,
"step": 13.7,
"k_share": 60.5,
"n": 129
},
{
"cds": "19647330101618",
"name": "Richard Riordan Primary Center",
"r_k8": 18.8,
"r_18": 7.5,
"step": 11.3,
"k_share": 44.4,
"n": 144
},
{
"cds": "01612596001689",
"name": "Burckhalter Elementary",
"r_k8": 47.0,
"r_18": 38.3,
"step": 8.7,
"k_share": 30.7,
"n": 215
},
{
"cds": "16638916010334",
"name": "Bret Harte Elementary",
"r_k8": 28.4,
"r_18": 20.0,
"step": 8.4,
"k_share": 59.9,
"n": 574
},
{
"cds": "01612596001929",
"name": "Horace Mann Elementary",
"r_k8": 33.2,
"r_18": 25.0,
"step": 8.2,
"k_share": 29.0,
"n": 214
},
{
"cds": "18641966010821",
"name": "McKinley Elementary",
"r_k8": 28.8,
"r_18": 20.8,
"step": 8.0,
"k_share": 42.7,
"n": 403
},
{
"cds": "38684786040950",
"name": "El Dorado Elementary",
"r_k8": 45.9,
"r_18": 37.9,
"step": 8.0,
"k_share": 34.6,
"n": 133
},
{
"cds": "19646006014047",
"name": "Hermosa View Elementary",
"r_k8": 12.1,
"r_18": 4.3,
"step": 7.8,
"k_share": 65.3,
"n": 398
},
{
"cds": "49708960120980",
"name": "Rincon Valley Partnership",
"r_k8": 31.3,
"r_18": 23.6,
"step": 7.7,
"k_share": 32.1,
"n": 131
}
]
},
"comparison": {
"NYC_2024_25": {
"K": 37.8,
"1-3": 30.6,
"4-6": 27.1,
"7-8": 30.0,
"9-12": 34.7,
"source": "dd1_grade_distortion.json (weighted per-grade -> spans)"
},
"Philadelphia_2024_25": {
"K": 36.5,
"1-3": 33.4,
"4-6": 31.9,
"7-8": 34.6,
"9-12": 46.2,
"source": "philly_replication.json (per-grade -> spans)"
}
}
}