# Snapshot-vs-served census — NYC chronic absenteeism (exhaustive; replaces the 300-school sample, ledger A.6)

Date: 2026-06-10. Computed by `run_census.py` + `augment_census.py` in this directory; machine-readable results in `census-stats.json`. Repo was read-only; database access was SELECT-only.

## Sources and conventions

- **Snapshot side:** `nyc-edu-data/data/quality/snapshot-values.json` (bulk fetch of the tools.nycenet.edu NYC School Snapshot data feed; raw per-DBN API responses cached at `nyc-edu-data/data/reference/snapshot/{EMS,HS}/<reportYear>/<DBN>.json`). Values are whole percents. `reportYear` = school-year END (2023 ↔ SY 2022-23). JSON carries reportYears 2019–2025 for 2,131 DBNs.
- **Served side:** local Postgres `edu_data_local`, `school_year_metrics` with `metric_key='chronic_absenteeism_rate'`, `subgroup='ALL'`, `NOT suppressed`, joined to `schools` for `school_type`/`grade_band`/`name` (exports: `served_schoolwide.csv`, `served_grades.csv`).
- **diff = served − snapshot** (pp). Headline tolerance ±1.5pp (matches `verify/snapshot.yaml` and the old sample). Bucket convention (matches `docs/qa_reports/nysed/stats.json` panels): `below_-5pp`: d<−5 | `-5_to_-2`: −5≤d<−2 | `-2_to_-1`: −2≤d<−1 | `within_±1`: −1≤d≤1 | `+1_to_+2`: 1<d≤2 | `+2_to_+5`: 2<d≤5 | `above_+5`: d>5. `share_within_Xpp` = |d|≤X.
- **Old sample being replaced:** `docs/qa_reports/chronic_absenteeism_rate__snapshot.{md,json}` — n_sampled 300, checked 212, match 141, agreement 0.6651 at ±1.5pp.
- District = `school_type != 'CHARTER'` (DOE_PUBLIC + D75_SPECIAL_ED). Charters are a separate section (their served values are NYSED-derived; do not mix).

## 1. District census — old varname `student_chronic_absent`, SY 2018-19..2022-23

Served district rows in scope: **7,608** (7,329 DOE_PUBLIC + 279 D75). Compared: **6,570**. Snapshot-missing: **1,038**, all "dbn present in the feed but no entry for that reportYear" — 279 are D75 schools (zero D75 school-years have Snapshot entries, so the compared set is 100% DOE_PUBLIC) and 759 are DOE_PUBLIC school-years.

### Pooled (n = 6,570)

| stat | value |
|---|---|
| share within ±0.5 / ±1.0 / ±1.5pp | 0.3422 / 0.5374 / **0.6534** (4,293/6,570) |
| mean / median / sd | +0.73 / +0.60 / 2.13 |
| p10 / p90 | −0.69 / +2.97 |
| min / p1 / p99 / max | −26.84 / −7.09 / +5.72 / +15.83 |
| weighted (denominator) aggregate | served 30.62% vs snapshot 30.04% → **+0.58pp** |
| correlation | 0.9916 |

Buckets (pp): `below_-5pp` 130 | `-5_to_-2` 187 | `-2_to_-1` 185 | `within_±1` 3,531 | `+1_to_+2` 1,184 | `+2_to_+5` 1,229 | `above_+5` 124.

### Per year

| SY | n served | n compared | missing | w±0.5 | w±1.0 | **w±1.5** | median | mean | sd | p10/p90 | weighted | corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 1,524 | 1,321 | 203 | 0.287 | 0.491 | **0.6419** | +0.67 | +0.65 | 2.37 | −0.98/+2.92 | +0.48 | 0.987 |
| 2019-20 | 1,525 | 1,309 | 216 | 0.295 | 0.474 | **0.6127** | +0.86 | +0.91 | 2.02 | −0.45/+2.93 | +0.70 | 0.989 |
| 2020-21 | 1,520 | 1,305 | 215 | 0.458 | 0.684 | **0.7824** | +0.15 | +0.13 | 1.99 | −1.24/+1.84 | +0.05 | 0.993 |
| 2021-22 | 1,518 | 1,310 | 208 | 0.295 | 0.473 | **0.5756** | +0.92 | +1.03 | 2.08 | −0.45/+3.13 | +0.89 | 0.992 |
| 2022-23 | 1,521 | 1,325 | 196 | 0.377 | 0.567 | **0.6551** | +0.60 | +0.96 | 2.06 | −0.42/+3.45 | +0.77 | 0.990 |

Per-year buckets are in `census-stats.json → district_census.per_year[<SY>].distribution.buckets_pp`.

### Worst 15 (pooled, by |diff|)

| dbn | name | SY | served | snapshot | denom | diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28Q157 | J.H.S. 157 Stephen A. Halsey | 2021-22 | 27.16 | 54 | 1,624 | −26.84 |
| 15K497 | The Boerum Hill School for International Studies | 2018-19 | 25.92 | 47 | 737 | −21.08 |
| 28Q157 | J.H.S. 157 Stephen A. Halsey | 2019-20 | 12.06 | 33 | 1,716 | −20.94 |
| 15K464 | Park Slope Collegiate | 2020-21 | 47.75 | 65 | 689 | −17.25 |
| 03M859 | Special Music School | 2019-20 | 22.83 | 7 | 311 | +15.83 |
| 09X260 | Bronx Center for Science and Mathematics | 2020-21 | 54.98 | 70 | 442 | −15.02 |
| 29Q327 | Eagle Academy for Young Men III | 2018-19 | 27.49 | 42 | 513 | −14.51 |
| 28Q157 | J.H.S. 157 Stephen A. Halsey | 2022-23 | 24.86 | 39 | 1,625 | −14.14 |
| 15K448 | Brooklyn Collaborative Studies | 2020-21 | 60.20 | 74 | 691 | −13.80 |
| 06M346 | Community Health Academy of the Heights | 2018-19 | 37.54 | 51 | 706 | −13.46 |
| 15K497 | The Boerum Hill School for International Studies | 2019-20 | 25.72 | 39 | 828 | −13.28 |
| 08X452 | Gotham Collaborative High School | 2020-21 | 39.85 | 27 | 394 | +12.85 |
| 17K382 | Academy for College Preparation and Career Exploration | 2021-22 | 29.32 | 42 | 399 | −12.68 |
| 28Q157 | J.H.S. 157 Stephen A. Halsey | 2020-21 | 23.52 | 36 | 1,675 | −12.48 |
| 29Q283 | Preparatory Academy for Writers | 2019-20 | 35.75 | 48 | 579 | −12.25 |

The 15 rows are 11 distinct schools, every one of them spanning a grade-band boundary or fetched under the HS report: seven serve grades 6–12, two serve 9–12, one serves 6–9 (28Q157, four of the 15 rows), one is K–12 (03M859) — exactly the population where a school-wide rate diverges from a band rate; see §3 (verified end-to-end for 28Q157 in §6).

## 2. Does the census confirm the old sample?

**Yes on the headline; the sample understated the extremes and hid year-to-year spread.**

- Pooled census agreement **0.6534** vs the sample's **0.6651** — within 1.2pp of each other; "~67%" is confirmed as "~65%" at 31× the sample's compared n (6,570 vs 212).
- Per-year, agreement ranges **0.5756 (2021-22) to 0.7824 (2020-21)** — the sample pooled years and could not see this. 2020-21 is the outlier-good year; 2021-22 the worst.
- Tail: the sample's mismatch range (−12 to +7.7pp, per ledger A.6) is real but truncated. Census full range **−26.84 to +15.83pp**; p1/p99 = −7.09/+5.72; 130 school-years below −5pp and 124 above +5pp (3.9% of compared beyond ±5pp).
- The signed shape is the same: the distribution is right-shifted (served > snapshot; mean +0.73, weighted +0.58pp) with a thinner but longer negative tail.

## 3. Basis narrowing (new; replaces A.6's "suspected accountability-cohort denominator")

A.6 left the cause "not established." The census data establishes most of it: **the Snapshot's `student_chronic_absent` tracks the grade-band rate, not the school-wide rate** — grades **K–8 (K-inclusive)** for schools cached under the EMS report, grades **9–12** for HS-report schools, **same school year**. Report type per school-year was read from raw-cache file presence (`data/reference/snapshot/EMS|HS/<reportYear>/`; 16 of ~7,650 dbn-years are dual-cached, EMS preferred).

Replacing the school-wide served candidate with the served grade-band rate (reconstructed from non-suppressed `chronic_absenteeism_rate_grade_*` rows, denominator-weighted):

| SY | school-wide w±1.5 | band w±1.5 | EMS-report w±1.5 (n) | HS-report w±1.5 (n) | HS median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 0.6419 | **0.8182** | 0.8255 (940) | 0.8000 (380) | +0.21 |
| 2019-20 | 0.6127 | **0.8121** | 0.9501 (921) | 0.4845 (388) | +1.56 |
| 2020-21 | 0.7824 | **0.9257** | 0.9424 (920) | 0.8857 (385) | −0.10 |
| 2021-22 | 0.5756 | **0.8191** | 0.9538 (930) | 0.4895 (380) | +1.49 |
| 2022-23 | 0.6551 | **0.9442** | 0.9409 (947) | 0.9524 (378) | +0.16 |
| pooled | 0.6534 | **0.8639** | 0.9223 (4,658) | 0.7216 (1,911) | +0.48 |

Year-alignment check (same vs prior vs next school year, per report type): same-year wins in every panel by a wide margin (e.g., EMS ry2021: same 0.9424 vs next 0.0446 vs prior 0.1261) — there is no year offset.

**Established:** the band basis explains the bulk of the A.6 disagreement, including the entire worst-15 list pattern (middle schools with a tiny 9th grade served the HS report get a grades-9-12 figure — §6 case 2 — and K-8 schools' school-wide rates differ from the Snapshot by their PK enrollment — §6 case 1). The EMS basis is K-inclusive: at the 2024/25 varnames where the test is sharpest, K-8 fits far better than 1-8 or PK-8 (§5).

**Not established:** the residual. Two HS panels — **ry2020 (SY 2019-20, w±1.5 = 0.4845)** and **ry2022 (SY 2021-22, 0.4895)** — carry a one-sided +1.5pp median level shift (served band rate above snapshot) that year alignment does not fix; and ry2019 (SY 2018-19) sits at only 0.80–0.83 for both report types. Whether this is a denominator rule (e.g., the Educator-Guide/accountability population), a different attendance cut for those years, or something else, is not determined by this census. This narrows A.6's open item to: "HS reports in SY 2019-20/2021-22 + both report types in SY 2018-19."

## 4. Comparison-group average (`cavg_student_chronic_absent`) — descriptive only

Not a validation. Distribution of school − comparison-group-average, district compared rows with a non-null cavg (note: **the feed has zero non-null cavg values in reportYear 2021** / SY 2020-21):

| SY | n | snap−cavg med (p10/p90) | served−cavg med (p10/p90) | share served below cavg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 1,321 | +4.0 (−13/+23) | +5.08 (−13.5/+24.0) | 0.394 |
| 2019-20 | 1,309 | +3.0 (−12/+20) | +4.29 (−11.5/+21.3) | 0.390 |
| 2020-21 | 0 | — | — | — |
| 2021-22 | 1,310 | +6.0 (−18/+24.1) | +6.63 (−17.3/+25.8) | 0.344 |
| 2022-23 | 1,325 | +4.0 (−15/+22) | +5.55 (−14.2/+23.1) | 0.351 |
| pooled | 5,265 | +4.0 (−14/+22) | +5.38 (−13.6/+23.6) | 0.370 |

Description only: the median school sits 3–6pp **above** its NYC "similar schools" average on both the Snapshot's own value and our served value, and only ~35–40% of schools sit below their comparison-group average; the spread is wide (sd ~14pp). No claim about how NYC constructs the groups is made here.

## 5. ReportYears 2024/2025 — renamed varnames (`val_chronic_absent_ems_all` / `val_chronic_absent_hs_all`), ledger A.7

A.7 said the values "match neither adjacent InfoHub year" (4-school check); basis unestablished. The exhaustive test confirms the raw values match nothing — and then resolves the basis.

**Raw-value candidates all fail.** Tested per variant × report year against served school-wide same-year/prior-year/next-year/two-prior and served band rates (26 candidate panels, n = 377–1,089 each): best share within ±1.5pp is **0.042**; medians −5.8 to −32.1pp. Full table in `census-stats.json → a7_2024_2025_candidates`.

**The complement reconciles.** Interpreting the value as `100 − (chronic absenteeism rate)`:

| panel | candidate | n | w±0.5 | w±1.5 | median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ry2024 EMS | **band K-8 same-year (2023-24)** | 931 | 0.880 | **0.9710** | +0.05 |
| ry2024 EMS | band 1-8 same-year | 931 | 0.318 | 0.6101 | −0.97 |
| ry2024 EMS | band PK-8 same-year | 931 | 0.431 | 0.6735 | +0.51 |
| ry2024 EMS | school-wide same-year | 1,085 | 0.412 | 0.6396 | +0.55 |
| ry2024 EMS | band K-8 prior-year | 931 | 0.081 | 0.2342 | +1.80 |
| ry2024 HS | **band 9-12 same-year (2023-24)** | 385 | 0.886 | **0.9740** | +0.06 |
| ry2024 HS | band 9-12 prior-year | 385 | 0.057 | 0.1896 | +1.83 |
| ry2025 EMS | **band K-8 same-year (2024-25)** | 926 | 0.879 | **0.9665** | +0.09 |
| ry2025 HS | **band 9-12 same-year (2024-25)** | 377 | 0.910 | **0.9814** | +0.03 |

(Remaining candidates: `census-stats.json → a7_complement_interpretation`.)

**Verdict (established, arithmetic only):** `val_chronic_absent_ems_all = round(100 − same-report-year K-8 chronic-absenteeism rate)` and `val_chronic_absent_hs_all = round(100 − same-report-year 9-12 rate)` for 97–98% of schools at ±1.5pp. The series did NOT change population or period in 2024 — it changed **sign convention** (the feed now stores the complement, i.e., the share NOT chronically absent). K-8 beats 1-8 and PK-8 decisively, consistent with A.19's K-inclusive observation. The earlier 4-school "matches neither year" result was an artifact of comparing the raw value instead of its complement. EMS/HS variants are band-specific by construction (K-8 vs 9-12 fits); no school in the bulk fetch carries both variants in the same reportYear (the fetch pulled one report type per school — 0 overlaps — so same-school EMS-vs-HS comparison is not possible from this feed). What label the rendered page attaches to this number is **not established** here (per A.7, the page does not visibly display it); `pavg_chronic_absent_*_all` was not validated against anything and is noted only as present and on the same complement scale (e.g., 01M184: val 91, pavg 89).

## 6. Hand verifications (end-to-end)

**Case 1 — 01M015 (P.S. 015 Roberto Clemente), reportYear 2023 = SY 2022-23, EMS report, old varname.**
Raw DOE file (`public-school-attendance-results-2019-2025.xlsx`, All Students): All Grades contributing = 206, chronically absent = 104 → 104/206 = **50.4854%**. Served DB row: value 50.48543549, denominator 206 — exact. K-8 portion (grades K,1–5; school serves no 6–8): contributing 37+34+28+33+25+36 = 193, CA 16+21+11+14+16+16 = 94 → 94/193 = **48.705%**. PK row: 13 contributing, 10 CA. Snapshot cache `EMS/2023/01M015.json`: `student_chronic_absent='49%'`; snapshot-values.json: 49.0. Result: served − snapshot = **+1.49pp** (a "match" by 0.01); the K-8 rate rounds to 49 **exactly**; the gap is the PK rows in the school-wide rate.

**Case 2 — 28Q157 (J.H.S. 157 Stephen A. Halsey), reportYear 2022 = SY 2021-22, HS report, old varname; the single worst diff in the census (−26.84pp).**
Raw file: All Grades contributing = 1,624, CA = 441 → **27.155%** (= served DB value, denominator 1,624). Grade 9 only: contributing = 35, CA = 19 → 19/35 = **54.286%**. Snapshot cache: no `EMS/2022/28Q157.json` exists; `HS/2022/28Q157.json` has `student_chronic_absent='54%'` (cavg 42%). Result: the snapshot value is the school's grades-9-12 figure computed on **35 students** — the school was served the HS report, and the worst tail case is fully explained by the band basis, not by a data error on either side.

**Case 3 — 01M184 (P.S. 184m Shuang Wen), reportYear 2024 = SY 2023-24, EMS report, renamed varname.**
Raw file: All Grades contributing = 746, CA = 72 → 9.651% (= served DB value, denominator 746). K-8 = All Grades minus PK (51 contributing, 11 CA): 695 contributing, 61 CA → 61/695 = **8.777%**; 100 − 8.777 = **91.22**. Snapshot cache `EMS/2024/01M184.json`: `val_chronic_absent_ems_all='91%'` (pavg 89%); snapshot-values.json: 91.0. Result: complement of the K-8 rate rounds to 91 **exactly**; the raw value 91 matches no CA rate of any nearby year, reproducing why the A.7 spot check failed.

## 7. CHARTERS — separate, descriptive only

Served charter values are **NYSED-derived (grades 1–12)**; the Snapshot's charter values appear DOE-computed on a K-inclusive basis (A.19) — a basis mismatch on both grade range and publisher chain, and charter HS 2020-21→2022-23 inherits the A.20 NYSED HS anomaly. Provenance is a parallel workstream; nothing below is a provenance claim.

Served charter rows SY 2018-19..2022-23: **890** (no 2019-20 — NYSED never published it). Compared: **796**; missing 94 (72 no reportYear entry, 22 null varname).

Pooled: w±0.5/1.0/1.5 = 0.157 / 0.279 / **0.3781** (301/796); mean +5.04, median +0.89, sd 14.27; p10/p90 −2.89/+17.34; min/max −87.80/+93.43; weighted aggregate served 32.02% vs snapshot 27.08% (**+4.94pp**); correlation 0.775.
Buckets: `below_-5pp` 34 | `-5_to_-2` 86 | `-2_to_-1` 64 | `within_±1` 222 | `+1_to_+2` 79 | `+2_to_+5` 110 | `above_+5` 201.

| SY | n | w±1.5 | median | corr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 132 | 0.3485 | −1.53 | 0.693 |
| 2020-21 | 211 | 0.3886 | +1.07 | 0.742 |
| 2021-22 | 224 | 0.3304 | +2.40 | 0.758 |
| 2022-23 | 229 | 0.4323 | +0.71 | 0.807 |

The worst-15 list (`census-stats.json → charter_census.worst_15`) is dominated by served values of exactly or near 100.0 against snapshot values of 3–37 (e.g., 84K927 2022-23 served 100.0 vs snapshot 8; 84X419 2020-21 served 99.43 vs snapshot 6), plus one inverse case (84M433 2018-19 served 0.2 vs snapshot 88). These served extremes come from the NYSED side of the served pipeline and overlap the A.20 phenomenon; their cause is not established here.

## 8. Files

- `census-stats.json` — all panels (stats.json-compatible bucket shape), candidate-interpretation tables, worst-case lists, hand verifications, verdicts.
- `run_census.py`, `augment_census.py` — reproducible computation (read-only inputs).
- `served_schoolwide.csv`, `served_grades.csv` — SELECT-only exports used as inputs.

## 9. Addendum (2026-06-10): distribution panels on the band basis

Added by `augment_band_distributions.py` (same analysis workspace as the other scripts; inputs unchanged). Every summary share was asserted equal to the §3/§5 numbers before writing — pooled band **0.8639**, EMS pooled **0.9223**, decoded 0.9665–0.9814 all reproduce exactly; no recomputation drift.

Two new computed sections in `census-stats.json`, both in the same distribution-bucket shape as §1 and the `docs/qa_reports/nysed/stats.json` panels, each panel carrying a `worst10` list (largest |diff|; `our_rate` = the served **band** rate, `band_denominator` = the band's contributing-student sum):

- **`band_basis_panels.panels`** — the §3 comparison (served grade-band rate − Snapshot, district schools, old varname, SY 2018-19..2022-23): `pooled`, per-SY, `EMS_pooled`/`HS_pooled`, and per-SY × report type (`<SY>_EMS`/`<SY>_HS`). Pooled buckets (pp): `below_-5pp` 16 | `-5_to_-2` 98 | `-2_to_-1` 225 | `within_±1` 5,043 | `+1_to_+2` 751 | `+2_to_+5` 418 | `above_+5` 18 (n 6,569) — versus the school-wide pooled buckets in §1 (130 | 187 | 185 | 3,531 | 1,184 | 1,229 | 124), i.e. the beyond-±5pp tail shrinks from 254 to 34 school-years on the correct basis.
- **`decoded_2024_2025_panels.panels`** — the §5 decode (served band rate − (100 − feed value)), reportYears 2024/2025 × EMS/HS, same school year. The `worst10` rows are exactly the schools where even the complement decode fails; the largest residual anywhere is **−6.27pp** (13K301, 2023-24, K-8 47.73 vs decoded 54) and 3 of the 4 panels max out below ±5.1pp.

**Dual-cache annotation (new, verified per row).** Each `worst10` row carries `dual_cached` (both `EMS/<ry>/<dbn>.json` and `HS/<ry>/<dbn>.json` exist in the raw cache — the §3 tie-break prefers EMS) and, where dual, `alt_band_rate` (the served rate of the *other* band). Result: **8 of the 10 pooled band-basis worst rows are dual-cached schools whose feed value matches their grades-9-12 rate to within 2.5pp** (7 of 8 within ±1.5pp; e.g. 15K448 2021-22: compared K-8 35.77 vs snapshot 64, but 9-12 = 63.74) — for those dbn-years the bulk feed evidently stored the HS-report figure, so the top of the band-basis tail is largely a tie-break artifact, itself band-explained under the HS reading. The two non-dual extremes (09X260 2020-21, −15.02; 08X452 2020-21, +12.85; both HS-report 9-12 comparisons) remain genuinely unexplained and stay with the §3 residual. Which report a dual-cached school's *page* actually displays is not established here.

These panels feed the metric page's open issue (3) (band-basis strips + the linked extreme-cases list); §§1–8 above are unchanged.

## 10. Addendum (2026-06-10): both report types fetched for band-spanning schools; panels re-censused type-matched

§9 left the top of the band-basis tail as a tie-break artifact (the census compared ONE feed value per school-year, routed by cache presence with EMS preferred). Closed by completing the fetch: `scripts/quality/fetch_snapshot_values.py` moved to a **per-report-type artifact schema** (`{dbn: {reportYear: {"EMS": …|null, "HS": …|null}}}`; v1 → v2 migration verified value-preserving against the v1 artifact, 10,809 blocks, 0 drifts) and a targeted `--spanning` mode fetched the missing type for all **201 band-spanning schools** (`grade_levels_served` has a grade ≤8 AND one of 09–12) × report years 2019–2025 × both types: **2,814/2,814 triples recorded, 0 fetch errors** (live fetches distinguish errors — retried once, left unrecorded — from genuine no-report responses). Coverage: **780 of 1,407 spanning school-years carry values under BOTH types** (110–114 per year); 322 of the 627 no-value-pair school-years are D75 (the feed has no D75 reports, §1), 14 ALT_PROGRAM, the rest EMS-only/HS-only or unopened years.

**The dual-page reading of §9 is confirmed directly: each endpoint serves its own band's figure.** 15K448 ry2022: EMS page 36 ↔ served K-8 35.77, HS page 64 ↔ 9-12 63.74. 28Q157 (HS-banded 6–9 school; only its HS endpoint had ever been fetched): EMS 26 ↔ K-8 26.56 and HS 54 ↔ 9-12 54.29 in SY 2021-22 — its −26.84pp §1 worst-case is now a pair of sub-0.6pp matches — and the same pattern holds for all its years.

`band_basis_panels` and `decoded_2024_2025_panels` were regenerated **type-matched** by `recensus_both_types.py` (analysis workspace): every report-type value a school's feed carries is compared against ITS band (EMS ↔ K-8 K-inclusive, 9–12 ↔ HS), so spanning schools contribute both pairs. Before replacement the script reproduced the superseded selection exactly from the v1 artifact + the pre-fetch cache map (every `band_basis_test` share incl. pooled 0.8639 / EMS 0.9223, and every `a7_complement_interpretation` decode share — hard asserts), and verified that **6,553 of the 6,569 old rows carry over diff-identical**; the 16 replaced rows are exactly the in-scope dual-cached tie-break artifacts.

Results (old → new):

| panel | w±1.5 old → new | n old → new |
|---|---|---|
| pooled | 0.8639 → **0.8695** | 6,569 → 6,964 (+364 EMS pairs, +31 HS pairs) |
| EMS pooled | 0.9223 → **0.9261** | 4,658 → 5,022 |
| HS pooled | 0.7216 → **0.7230** | 1,911 → 1,942 |
| decoded ry2024 EMS/HS | 0.9710/0.9740 → **0.9732/0.9742** | 931/385 → 1,007/388 |
| decoded ry2025 EMS/HS | 0.9665/0.9814 → **0.9680/0.9816** | 926/377 → 1,001/380 |

Pooled buckets (pp): `below_-5pp` **3** (was 16) | `-5_to_-2` 101 | `-2_to_-1` 243 | `within_±1` 5,380 | `+1_to_+2` 789 | `+2_to_+5` 430 | `above_+5` 18; mean +0.34, median +0.20, sd 1.08. The 8 dual-cache mismatches are gone from the pooled worst10, which is now headed by the two §9 genuine residuals (09X260 2020-21 −15.02; 08X452 2020-21 +12.85) followed by single-band gaps of ≤±9.3pp — the largest remaining decode failure is −6.27pp (13K301, unchanged).

**Residual pockets: PERSIST — they are real, not tie-break artifacts.** With correct type-matching, HS-report agreement is **0.4834 in SY 2019-20 (median +1.57) and 0.4974 in SY 2021-22 (median +1.48)** (was 0.4845/0.4895), and SY 2018-19 stays at 0.8297 EMS / 0.7995 HS. The one-sided +1.5pp shift in those HS panels is a property of the published HS-report values for those years; its cause remains **not established** (A.6's open residual is unchanged in substance).